Prediction Markets are spectulative markets where contract (Share) payoffs are based on real-world events that have multiple possible outcomes. Traders make predictions by buying and selling contracts (Shares) which are actualized only if its outcome occurs.
The price of the contract (Share) is directly correlated to the expected value or probability of the outcome occurring. Another trader is required to set the price, thus prediction markets are betting arenas. Savvy and knowledgable traders can take advantage of overconfidence and inaccurate prices by improving the market prediction.
Simple as buying low and selling high. Look for Shares that are undervalued or that you think will increase in value.
When the Event ends, Shares for the Outcome that is true are worth 100. Traders are betting against each other as they reason how liekly it is that those Shares are worth anything at all.
In financial jargon, traders are buying and selling Call Options with a conditional strike price of 100. Upon Event resolution, those options are automatically called for Share holders. All other Shares are worth 0.
Traders who purchase Bundles inject not only Shares, but also Credits into the market. All credits are covered and held in Escrow until the event pays out.
An Event is a thing that will happen in the future. Each Event has 2 or more mutually exclusive Outcomes. Only 1 Outcome will be right.
Shares are bought and sold for Outcomes. When the Event closes/resolves/happens, one Outcome is determined correct. Shares held in your possession for the correct Outcome are awarded 100 Credits; Shares for other Outcomes are worthless.
The current market price of a Share is the current prediction for the corresponding Outcome.
Share Bundles give users 1 Share for each Outcome in the Event for the flat price of 100 Credits.
For example, if an Event has 3 possible Outcomes (Red, Green, and Blue), purchasing a Bundle creates 1 Red Share, 1 Green Share, and 1 Blue Share. These Shares are now in the user's inventory and can be sold to others.
If you buy a bundle and forget to sell the Shares, then you'll get your 100 Credits back (since you still hold the Share for the correct Outcome).
Nope. You can buy Shares from other users who have open sell orders.
Jesse has just discovered the site and decides to see what Events are open for predicting.
There is a tournament he is closely following because his favorite team is playing. He is also familiar with all the other teams, and thinks some of them have been underperforming lately. He is confident that his team can win.
Jesse signs in using his Steam account with the link in the navigation at the top of the page.
He uses the trader bot service to deposite three rares into his account, giving him about 1200 Credits.
Back at the tournament event, he purchases 10 Bundles, giving him 10 Shares for every team playing in the tournament. Jesse sets up sell orders for all the teams he thinks are underperforming, and quickly receives 782 Credits after other users buy his Shares.
Jesse holds on to his favored team's Shares because when they win the tournament, Jesse will receive 100 Credits per winning Share. He is absolutely certain his team will win, so Jesse also begins to buy any open sell orders from other users, knowing he'll make a profit for each purchase. He buys 20 additional Shares.
The grand finals happen, and Jesse's team wins the tournament! Jesse is a rich man: he not only sold Shares to less-knowledgable users, but also bought additional Shares. Jesse spent 1000 Credits for 10 Share Bundles and ~750 for 20 more Shares, but earned 3000 Credits net by holding 30 winning Shares and selling the loser Shares while their values were high.
No way! These are fully functional markets where you can buy at one price and sell at another. You don't have to retain any Shares at Event closing.
Yes, in a roundabout way.
Because there is no guarantee that you will pay back loaned Shares, we require that you place Credits in escrow that will cover your loss completely. This is done by purchasing an Event Bundle. Sell any Shares that you think are overpriced, and you'll begin to reclaim your escrow funds.
Shares remaining in your possession when the Event closes will be resolved as normal: Shares for the correct Outcome are awarded 100 Credits; Shares for other Outcomes are worthless.
Use the trader bot service to deposit Credits into your account.
You can cash out your Credits whenever you want by using the trader bot service. There is a small withdrawal fee, and there is no guarantee that you'll receive the exact items you deposited. You will receive items of the requested rarity.
Setting up orders may require placing funds in escrow. Please check your Transaction History.
If you didn't receive Credits after using the deposit service, please contact us.
All your Shares including those in escrow are visible in your Inventory.
If something is wrong please contact mail@site.com